'No victors, no vanquished': UN sees Assad staying, post-conflict

'No victors, no vanquished': UN sees Assad staying, post-conflict
Exclusive: Assad will continue to lead Syria in a ceremonial role, ahead of a consensus administration that would eventually see him leave office, according to a leaked UN proposal.
5 min read
25 April, 2016
Assad has built a cult-of-personality around his rule [Getty]
President Bashar al-Assad should remain in power in the immediate aftermath of Syria's war, as the Damascus government, opposition and civic society groups form a transitional authority, according to the UN envoy's peace plan, The New Arab can exclusively reveal.

Assad would, however, be stripped of authority over the military and security apparatus as the first step in a multi-stage transition designed to draw a line under the war that has killed at least 400,000 people in the past five years.

The proposal is mentioned in a draft communique from Geneva, believed to have been authored by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura as the framework for negotiations. The document has been leaked exclusively to The New Arab and its sister Arabic-language publication.

"It indicates a role for all Syrians in their future state, on the basis of equality, inclusivity, with mechanisms for respect for human rights and dignity, and the right to fully participate in political processes," the document reads.

10 key dates in Syria's war

2011: Revolt and repression 

- March 15: Unprecedented protests inspired by the Arab Spring erupt, demanding reform after 40 years of iron-fist rule by President Bashar al-Assad's family.
- Security forces crack down on protesters in Damascus and Daraa, known as "the cradle of the uprising", where 100 people are reportedly killed on March 23. 
- The regime claims it is cracking down on "an armed rebellion" by radical Islamists, while Britain, France and the United States denounce the repression.
- Protests spread, with demonstrators calling for Assad's ousting.

2012: All-out war
- July 17: Moderate rebels from the Free Syrian Army declare that the battle for Damascus has begun, but the government holds its ground.
- July 19: Rebels launch an offensive in the northern city of Aleppo, which has since been divided between rebel-held neighbourhoods in the east and regime-held districts in the west.

2013: Chemical attacks 
- August 21: Hundreds of people are killed in chemical weapons attacks targeting rebel bastions near Damascus. The West accuses Assad's regime.
- In September, the United States and Russia agree on a plan to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons, narrowly heading off US strikes.

2014: Rise of the extremists
- January 14: The Islamic State group, which emerged in Syria in 2013, seizes Raqqa, the first provincial capital to fall out of regime control.
- June 29: IS declares the establishment of an Islamic "caliphate". It later claims numerous murders, including of Western hostages.
- September 23: The US and Arab allies launch airstrikes on IS in Syria.

2014: The fall of Homs 
- May 9: Syrian troops recapture the Old City of Homs, after a two-year siege and near-daily bombardment. Rebels withdraw.

2015: Kobane liberated 
- January 26: Kurdish forces backed by US-led airstrikes drive IS out of the flashpoint town of Kobane on the Turkish border, after months of fierce fighting.

2015: Al-Nusra spreads 
- March 28: Syria's al-Qaeda franchise, the Nusra Front, backed by rebel allies, seizes most of the northwestern city of Idlib, the second provincial capital after Raqqa to fall out of government hands. 
- In May, Assad says that such set-backs do not mean the conflict is lost, but in July he acknowledges the shrinking ranks of his army.

2015: Russia intervenes 
- September 30: Russia launches airstrikes on Syria, saying it is targeting "terrorists" including IS, but faces accusations of hitting non-extremist rebels and civilians as it seeks to bolster Assad.

2016: Ceasefire 
- February 27: An unprecedented "cessation of hostilities" comes into force. It applies to combat zones between Russian-backed regime forces and non-extremist rebels, but does not apply to the more than half of the country's territory that is controlled by extremist groups.

The proposal fundamentally rejects the partition of Syria, and stresses the importance of reforming state institutions - such as the Supreme Court and wider judiciary - to become fully independent of the government.

And unlike in Iraq, where the civil service was eviscerated in a purge of Saddam supporters - leading to a breakdown in institutional knowledge and overall bureaucratic functioning - there will be no de-Baathification process in Syria, allowing government departments to continue operating without major societal upheaval.

Read more: Syria opposition abandons Geneva peace talks as bombs devastate market towns 

De Mistura calls for: "A non-sectarian, pluralistic, democratic and multi-party state based on respect for rule of law and human rights, inclusivity, citizenship, co-existence, respect for dignity and diversity, non-discrimination, equal rights of men and women, freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, freedom of peaceful assembly and equal opportunity."

Reform of government institutions should be limited to achieving those goals, he writes.

The Transitional Government Body shall comprise 40 percent government members, 40 percent from the opposition, and 20 percent from civil society groups.

At least a third of each are to be women, the UN envoy suggests.

The method for selecting members of each delegation within the TGB remains unclear, but a list of 120 current officials are to be banned from holding office due to their roles in the war.

It is thought that opposition negotiators will also insist specific people on the list are banned from leadership positions in the Baath party itself.

Ambiguity also reigns over the confidence-building measures proposed by De Mistura. The proposal calls for an end to all proscribed attacks during negotiations - so no barrel bombs, chemical attacks or "acts of terrorism".

As the Assad government has used the term "terrorism" to describe practically all opposition, it is likely the opposition negotiating team will be seeking further legal advice to clarify the use of the word, so as to avoid stalling by Assad's negotiators.

The UN plan seeks eventually to hold legislative and presidential elections - under the watchful eye of the UN, and with its funding.

"This will inaugurate the beginning of a new peaceful era for Syria," the proposal concludes.