Rumours wind a path to Aoun presidency

Political tensions came to the fore last week amid a flurry of meetings in Paris between Lebanese political leaders and foreign officials and on the backdrop of  suggestions that Future Movement head Saad Hariri is poised to throw his support behind Change and Reform Bloc candidate’s Michel Aoun’s presidential ambitions.

Hariri, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, as well as Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt and former prime minister Fouad Signiora were all in the French capital for talks with Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Saud al-Faysal and French officials ahead of a scheduled May 22 Lebanese parliamentary vote to choose a new president.

The talks took place amid reports in Beirut that Hariri had decided to support Aoun’s presidential candidacy. The apparent warming of relations between the two rivals is understood to be a result of the potential economic benefits to be made from gas reserves recently found off the Lebanese coast. 

Sources close to Hariri downplayed the possibility that he might support Aoun’s candidacy

Jumblatt made a possibly telling slip of the tongue when he addressed Suleiman as “Head of State General Michel Aoun”.

but did affirm to al-Araby al-Jadeed that while he seeks a non-partisan president, the Future Movement leader also wishes to mend relations with Aoun.

PSP and Lebanese Forces sources said the purpose of Jumblatt’s and Geagea’s visit to Paris was primarily to meet with the Saudi foreign minister. Lebanese Forces sources said Geagea had met Hariri to discuss the presidential elections and possible consensus candidates. The sources denied reports that Hariri had approved Aoun’s candidacy.

Sources close to Aoun, however, told al-Araby al-Jadeed that the real reason for their visit was to stop agreement being reached between Hariri and Aoun.

A Future Movement statement said Hariri discussed the upcoming vote with Geagea and Siniora. The three agreed, according to the statement, that “the presidential election must be completed within the constitutional timeframe”, that a “vacant [presidency] is unacceptable” - current President Michel Sleiman’s term ends on May 25 – and that “all parliamentarians” must participate to secure parliamentary quorum for a vote.

But the statement made no mention of the March 14 Alliance’s support for Geagea’s candidacy. Geagea had ostensibly travelled to Paris as the Alliance’s candidate.

The Future Movement is the largest party in the March 14 coalition and the chief rival of the March 8 coalition, which includes Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement and Hizballah.

Aoun’s presidential chances thus seemed to be increasing just a week before the parliamentary vote.

Then on Saturday, Jumblatt made a possibly telling slip of the tongue when he addressed the current Lebanese president, Michel Suleiman as “Head of State General Michel Aoun”. The mistake may have been intentional since Jumblatt was reading from a written statement. Jumblatt later made light of the matter. He had made a “mistake”, he said, “because we have been dreaming about him so often lately”, though not as president, he added.

Sources close to Hariri and Aoun have said little about the matter, but leaks suggest that the two sides have agreed to share the potential economic benefits from the gas and telecommunications sectors. Unhappy March 14 sources – disgruntled at the suggestion Hariri might support Aoun, an ally of Hizballah and the only presidential candidate the Shia movement will support – did not rule out this possibility, but argued it would have a negative impact on the coalition’s popular support. 

They also argue Hariri only became a national leader “after launching the battle of freedom” – an apparent reference to efforts to check Hizballah’s power and Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon. Support for Aoun would signal Hariri has ceded this effort, these sources said, and that in turn would leave Hariri, like his father, former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, merely a factional leader rather than a national one. And that way, Hariri will lose his March 14 allies without gaining anything in return.

However, Future Movement sources said the party’s priority is to assume power or at least ensure influence. Party supporters need basic services and aid, they say, and these can only be assured if the movement has leverage. Recently, for instance, significant interior ministry funds were allocated to supporter stronghold in the municipalities of Akkar and west and central Bekaa. The minister of the interior and municipalities is the Future Movement’s Nohad Mashnouq. 

Aoun sources said it was too early to assess the outcome of the talks but added that Hariri’s people had been positive about endorsing Aoun’s nomination. They also said tensions between Hariri and Geagea stemmed from Hariri’s support for Aoun.

The most important questions still remain unanswered, however. Have Aoun and Hariri agreed on the issue of Hizballah’s weapons? Does Hariri still believe it is possible to separate Aoun from the Shia group? There are no clear answers to these questions. Neutrals argue that Hariri would be delusional if he hopes to draw Aoun away from Hizballah. Aoun is not going to sever ties with the group, they argue, and if he did, Hizballah would be certain to react with unprecedented fury.

This is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.