Obama tells Saudis the Iran deal will go ahead

The cancellation of the Saudi king's participation in the summit meeting at Camp David between the US and the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council has led to feverish speculation about the state of US-Saudi relations.

On Wednesday, US President Barack Obama met Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, instead of King Salman Bin Abdulaziz, as the White House originally intended.

However, the Oval Office meeting also included a number of Saudi state ministers and the newly appointed foreign minister, Adel Jubair, and was still considered a very "high-level" meeting.

The king cancelled his trip on Saturday, a full day after White House spokesman Josh Earnest informed the press that Obama and Salman were to meet ahead of the Camp David summit.

Damage control

The resulting confusion over whether the Saudi king would attend - not one of the White House's finest moments - spurred a flurry of speculation on how this could be a signal that GCC Arab leaders are either mad at Obama, or have doubts about how iron-clad his commitment to protect them might be.

The Washington press corps immediately called King Salman's cancellation a 'royal snub'.

Almost frantically, the White House went into damage control, issuing a statement on Monday and the transcript of a phone call made by the Saudi monarch to the US president.

"There's been no concern raised by our Saudi partners, either before the change in travel plans or after, related to the agenda at Camp David," White House spokesman Josh Earnest said.

"All the feedback that we've received so far from the Saudis has been positive."

The Washington press corps and talking heads, always eager to cast scandal on this administration, whether real or imagined, immediately called King Salman's cancellation a "royal snub".

FOX News, and to a lesser extent the more mainstream CNN, had a field day with "the administration's incoherent foreign policy".

The influential Wall Street Journal was also harsh in depicting an Obama White House encumbered by chaos and incompetence.

Even respectable analysts - usually looked to for more sober analysis - jumped into the fray. The Brookings Institute's heavyweight (and former CIA Middle East specialist) Bruce Riedel, also labelled Salman's action a "royal snub".

He described King Salman's decision not to come as "a very deliberate signal of his lack of confidence in American policy in the Middle East", suggesting that the Saudis were unhappy with US policy towards Iran, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Riyadh, unlike Israel, will not have a public argument with the Obama administration, he said, but Saudi officials aimed to express a very public display of dissatisfaction.

The Saudis deliberately choose the last minute to cancel the king's trip to send a potent signal. -Bruce Riedel.

Reidel says that the timing of the decision, on the eve of the Camp David summit, "is especially symbolic and intended to be embarrassing" because the Saudis think that the summit was poorly prepared and lacked substantive deliverables.

Riedel thinks that that a reaffirmation of the "Carter Doctrine of American support for the Gulf States", which Obama is not likely to go beyond at this summit, is regarded as too little.

"More arms are too late. But the Saudis have known for weeks the constraints on Washington. They deliberately choose the last minute to cancel the king's trip to send a potent signal," Riedel says.

Half-hearted support?

According to Riedel, the Saudis believe Obama is a half-hearted supporter of their war in Yemen.

"King Salman and his 29-year-old son, Defence Minister Prince Muhammad bin Salman, have invested all of their prestige and credibility in a decisive victory in Yemen," said Reidel. "A truce is not what they want - the Houthis must be destroyed; Iran needs to be taught a lesson [from the Saudi perspective].

"To underscore the royal snub, Riyadh told its client in Manama to keep their king at home as well. Bahrain is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the kingdom."

Super hawkish Republican Senator John McCain, almost always critical of the Obama administration no matter what it does, accused Obama of once again abandoning US allies and compromising US prestige.

"It's an indicator of the lack of confidence that the Saudis and others have," McCain told MSNBC. "They do not see a way to... be satisfied with the situation when it's clear that the Iranian nuclear deal is the number one priority and this administration feels that they can somehow make agreements with Iran throughout the region when these countries view Iran as a direct threat."

Some analysts believe there is good reason to doubt Obama.

They say that GCC leaders are unnerved by Washington's nuclear talks with Iran, while Tehran is "meddling" across the Middle East. The Gulf is looking to Obama to promise more than words and weapons at Thursday's Camp David summit.

According to one influential GCC diplomat, they want written commitments from Obama that the US has their backs at a time when the region is under siege from armed extremist groups, Syria continues to unravel, Iraq is volatile and Yemen is in chaos.

"I think we are looking for some form of security guarantee, given the behaviour of Iran in the region, given the rise of the extremist threat. We definitely want a stronger relationship," said Yousef al-Otaiba, the United Arab Emirates' ambassador to the United States.

"In the past, we have survived with a gentleman's agreement with the United States about security. I think today, we need something in writing. We need something institutionalised."

Shifting US priorities

Others suggest that the GCC leaders, especially King Salman of Saudi Arabia, were upset at Obama's suggestion in his interview with the New York Times' Thomas Friedman that Iran wasn't the only problem - and that they needed to open their societies and share their public authority and vast wealth to a growing strata of dissatisfied youth with few opportunities in their future.

But all that seems to be mere speculation - or Iran-deal opponents smothering the narrative with their own wishful thinking in the hope that somehow it can derail the deal at the last minute.

As this summit gets underway, it behooves one to note that, come what may, the Obama administration is determined to conclude a deal with Iran by June 30 - and one that will see Iran's nuclear program severely restricted and the suffocating sanctions on Iran lifted. Nothing is likely to change in Obama's policy on this issue.

Obama is also unlikely to enter into any "written" defensive treaty with the GCC - one that would need to be ratified by the bullish US Senate.

He may well sign a memo of understanding with all six GCC countries that will ensure Iran never commits any aggression against this vitally and strategically important region, and indicating that Washington will spare no assets to ensure their security.

While Obama is determined to avoid yet another quagmire in the Middle East, the Iranians, whom Obama described as being pragmatic and realistic, can plainly see US might in the Gulf, with the US navy's fifth fleet stationed at Bahrain, and the huge airbases in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

He will assure his guests at Camp David that his administration will spare no asset in protecting them - but he will not go to war.


Said Arikat is a writer, analyst and a former UN spokesman.

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of al-Araby al-Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.