As Kadhimi heads to Washington, Iran-backed militias increase attacks
With Tehran and Washington competing for influence in Iraq, the gulf between pro-Iranian factions and Baghdad's US-friendly premier is growing.
When Kadhimi meets Trump on Thursday for the first time, the top agenda for the Iraqi leader is the presence of 5,000 US troops deployed in his country.
Kadhimi, who took office in May, faces challenges from factions of the Hashd al-Shaabi, a coalition of Iraqi Shia paramilitary groups with close ties to Iran.
The Hashd al-Shaabi is integrated into the Iraqi state, and its political representatives have called for the expulsion of US troops.
Pro-Iranian factions were hit hard by Washington's assassination in January of one of their top chiefs, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in a strike that also killed top Iranian commander General Qasem Soleimani.
The Hashd denies any connection to a recent spate of anti-US attacks, but videos and claims on social media hint at its involvement, through groups operating under other names.
"The personnel that make up the new militias are most likely pulled from the membership of pre-existing armed groups that make up the Hashd al-Shaabi," said Ramzy Mardini, from The Pearson Institute at the University of Chicago.
Kadhimi -- far closer to Washington than his predecessor Nuri al-Maliki -- has angered armed groups by seizing border posts where they ran lucrative smuggling networks and imposed taxes on traders.
'League of Revolutionaries'
Attacks have risen in recent weeks.
From October to the end of July, Iraqi armed factions carried out 39 rocket attacks against American interests in the country.
But after the White House earlier this month confirmed that Trump would meet Kadhimi on Thursday, the pace intensified.
Between August 4 and August 16, 13 bomb and rocket attacks targeted Iraqi logistics convoys for the US military, bases housing US soldiers and the US embassy.
While the impact has been limited, the attacks have served as a show of strength.
After an attack on a convoy in Iraq's south, a man was arrested in possession of bombs and a Hashd military ID card that allowed him to cross checkpoints without a search, an intelligence source told AFP.
Some attacks have been carried out by groups with other names including the "League of Revolutionaries".
"They operate under new banners to mask and protect the established militia leadership from facing possible retaliation," Mardini said.
"If these groups are operating outside the government, Baghdad is less likely to be held responsible and punished by Washington," he added.
But by increasing the number of attacks, it also sends a signal to Kadhimi that he cannot prevent attacks simply by raids and arrests against the militias.
At the end of June, 14 fighters from the Hezbollah Brigades, a Hashd faction, were arrested for attacks on Americans.
Three days later, 13 were released on the decision of a Hashd military judge.
For many Iraqis, the spate of violence increasingly reminds them of the jihadist attacks against US forces following the 2003 invasion.
Their videos appear to echo the propaganda produced by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, with slick special effects and religious songs.
In Iraq's largely Shia Muslim south, where the recent attacks were concentrated, many fear the same fate as that of Iraq's Sunni regions, which was left in ruins by the war against the jihadists.
In a country that emerged 10 years ago from a bloody sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias, the government fears a new conflict.
The strategy, several government officials say, is therefore to act -- but without naming groups responsible.
When a German hostage was freed in July, Baghdad did not blame anyone, even though officials said "factions claiming to be Hashd" were involved.
The assassination in July of researcher Hisham al-Hashimi, a close friend of Kadhimi who had studied the Hashd, had already been seen as a message to the prime minister.