Saudi oil keeps flowing, while debt reaches record levels

Saudi oil keeps flowing, while debt reaches record levels
Saudi Arabia will increase oil production to meet global demand, despite pressure from OPEC members to freeze output as Gulf States report record levels of debt.
3 min read
11 May, 2016
Saudi Arabia is taking a new direction under the guidance of Crown Prince Mohammed [AFP]

Saudi Arabia will pump out more oil ahead of its anticipated IPO of state-owned oil giant Aramco, which could prove to be the biggest share sales in history.

The news comes after repeated efforts by oil producers for a cuts to output and stabilise prices. Some of Saudi Arabia's Gulf neighbours – such as Oman and Bahrain – are suffering badly from lost revenues and unlike Riyadh, do not have the financial cushion to absorb such losses.

Despite these pressures, Riyadh says it will press ahead of ramping up production to "meet growing demand".

"Whatever the call on Saudi Aramco, we will meet it," said Aramco CEO Amin Nasser.

"There will always be a need for additional production. Production will increase upward in 2016."

Nasser spoke with CNN about the company's IPO, and said that Aramco is in no rush for a sale.

Pumping oil out

With prices between $40 and $50 dollars a barrel, patience on the sale would be wise, especially given that Nasser is confident prices will rise by the time the sale happens, likely to be early next year.

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"Supply and demand will come into balance by the end of the year, or first quarter next year," Amin predicted. "Prices will trend higher when that happens."

Aramco pumps out around ten million barrels of oil a day. It could scale up production to 11 million this year in an apparent price war with regional foe Iran, which has been increasing production after international sanctions on it ended.

But Iran has also said it was ready to talk with OPEC members about cutting production to allow prices to rise.

Saudi Arabia has already said it wouldn't cut production without similar pledges from all OPEC members – including Iran – who are collectively responsible of 40 percent of the world's crude oil.

A sign that Saudi Arabia is serious about keeping oil production high is the expansion of the Shaybah oilfield.

This should be completed this month and increase production by 250,000 barrels a day to one million daily, according to the Financial Times.

Government changes

Saudi Arabia has undergone huge political changes recently, with oil an integral part of this.

Riyadh's long-standing oil minister Ali al-Naimi was recently ousted and replaced with a new cabinet member more likely to tow the Saudi leadership's line.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be taking a leading role in government affairs, on behalf of his father King Salman.

The centrepiece is a $2 trillion financial package aimed at weaning Saudi Arabia off its oil addiction, although similar ambitious diversification plans for Gulf States have been largely unsuccessful.

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In the meantime, Saudi Arabia needs prices to be at around $100 a barrel to break even with its budget. This figure is more than double current oil prices, and many economists doubt prices will rise to pre-2015 levels.

Other Gulf States need prices to rise even higher, and are currently racking up huge debt to meet government spending.

On Wednesday, Gulf States set a record for international borrowing of around $8.6 billion so far this year, according to the Financial Times, and this figure is likely to rise.

This is higher than the previous record set in 2009, when Gulf economics crashed after Dubai's financial crisis.

It is why some Gulf analysts are calling 2016 "the year of debt" the financial daily said, and spending will need to be urgently cut if debt is not to reach unsustainable levels.