Tunisia has voted, but its democracy is still fragile
Tunisia has voted, but its democracy is still fragile
A coalition with Nidaa Tounes and Ennahdha could provide solid foundations – even if based on antipathy - for democratic checks and balances. It is either a non-starter or a best starting point to develop sound democratic institutions.
5 min read
07 Nov, 2014
Tunisia carries the flame but work remains [Emad Hajjaj]
Tunisia has voted, and the voters are unified, at least by pride. They know that they represent the only Arab Spring society that has seized the chance for a peaceful transition to democracy. The parliamentary elections of 26 October have seen a fair process and have taken place in a quiet, almost solemn atmosphere.
With 85 out of 217 parliamentary seats, the secular-conservative Nidaa Tounes Party secured a relative majority, confining the Islamist Ennahdha Party (69 seats), the winner of the 2011 elections, to second place. Ennahdha quickly acknowledged defeat and extended its congratulations to the victors. Keep in mind that this is a democracy in its very early stages. Developing such etiquette took other societies centuries.
So far so good. Some see the election result as a victory over Islamism, an evalutation seemingly confirmed by the campaigns of Nidaa Tounes and other parties. Nidaa Tounes was established only after the first free elections in 2011 and is a collection of political currents and individuals, glued together by their rejection of Ennahdha. It has surely benefitted from a surge of terrorist activity in Tunisia. Secularists, in general, have been busy claiming that Ennahdha was the source of this terrorism. True or false, the fact is that Ennahdha’s reputation suffered the most from the killings.
In the spirit of the Arab Spring, however, the struggle is not against Islamism but against authoritarianism. And it is here that a note of caution must be struck vis-à-vis Nidaa Tounes. Headed by Beji Caid Essebsi, 87, a minister under a former president, Habib Bourgiba, the party not only gathers people of different political tendencies, it includes members of the old regime. Before the elections, many Tunisians had voiced a desire for a new “strongman” to steer Tunisia through its economic crisis and to fight terrorism. They have got one now.
A year ago, the constitutional process became a harbinger of “the strong man”. One of the major hurdles in the constitutional debate was not whether to make Sharia Law part of the constitution (Ennahdha had brought this up, but early signaled its willingness to compromise). It was, rather, the struggle for the nature of the Tunisian political system. Ennahdha wanted a parliamentary democracy, Nidaa Tounes and others pushed for a strong presidency. The result, reached in February 2014 mixes both. But this division should be remembered when formulating assumptions about Tunisia‘s future.
The question now is: what will the next government look like? As the largest party, Nidaa Tounes will head coalition talks. The, at first sight, most alluring option for it is a coalition with other, smaller secular parties that share its anti-Islamist stance and its liberal economic programme. But this is attractive at first glance only. Tunisia’s socio-economic pressures are enormous and liberals want to address them by attracting foreign and private investment. Such measures might be popular in the short term, creating jobs and consequently increasing support for the ruling coalition. But the jobs will be low-paid and profits will be harvested by foreign and private investors. In the long term, this spells success not for Nidaa Tounes, but the opposition.
Geographic differences in voters’ behavior suggest as much. On 26 October, all the northern electoral districts, with their relatively well-developed communities and infrastructure, went to Nidaa Tounes. But in the poorer south, Ennahdha remained the most popular political force. And in the middle of the country, support is split. If the next ruling coalition doesn‘t considerably improve the lot in the south and centre of the country, Ennahdha could well emerge victorious in the next elections.
On 23 November, a new president will be elected. Ennahdha has not fielded its own candidate, but who it chooses to throw its support behind among the 27 contenders will be crucial. The party has already signaled its readiness to back Nidaa Tounes’ candidate in return for becoming the junior partner in a ruling coalition.
To improve the fragile state of the country’s democratic institutions, such a partnership might be optimal. The two main parties, and even more their constituencies, hate each other. They would surely be watching each other’s steps very closely, eager to identify failure, fraud or nepotism. Such a coalition could provide solid foundations – even if based on antipathy - for democratic checks and balances. It is either a non-starter or a best starting point to develop sound democratic institutions.
Without such institutions, it is hard to envision Tunisia beginning to enjoy the kind of stable economic life that could benefit everyone let alone fulfil aspirations for social justice and dignity, the very demands of the protests that led to the flight of its dictator and touched off an avalanche of repercussions across the region.
But first Tunisian politics needs to gain the trust of the population. Out of 7.8 million eligible voters, 5.1 million registered for the elections, but only just over 3 million, or 40 percent, cast their votes. It must be the aim of all parties in this five-year parliamentary term, to establish credibility for their work and the parliamentary process itself.
Peter Schäfer is head of the North Africa office of the German Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung in Tunis.
With 85 out of 217 parliamentary seats, the secular-conservative Nidaa Tounes Party secured a relative majority, confining the Islamist Ennahdha Party (69 seats), the winner of the 2011 elections, to second place. Ennahdha quickly acknowledged defeat and extended its congratulations to the victors. Keep in mind that this is a democracy in its very early stages. Developing such etiquette took other societies centuries.
So far so good. Some see the election result as a victory over Islamism, an evalutation seemingly confirmed by the campaigns of Nidaa Tounes and other parties. Nidaa Tounes was established only after the first free elections in 2011 and is a collection of political currents and individuals, glued together by their rejection of Ennahdha. It has surely benefitted from a surge of terrorist activity in Tunisia. Secularists, in general, have been busy claiming that Ennahdha was the source of this terrorism. True or false, the fact is that Ennahdha’s reputation suffered the most from the killings.
 |
Before the elections, many Tunisians had voiced a desire for a new “strongman” ... They have got one now. |
In the spirit of the Arab Spring, however, the struggle is not against Islamism but against authoritarianism. And it is here that a note of caution must be struck vis-à-vis Nidaa Tounes. Headed by Beji Caid Essebsi, 87, a minister under a former president, Habib Bourgiba, the party not only gathers people of different political tendencies, it includes members of the old regime. Before the elections, many Tunisians had voiced a desire for a new “strongman” to steer Tunisia through its economic crisis and to fight terrorism. They have got one now.
A year ago, the constitutional process became a harbinger of “the strong man”. One of the major hurdles in the constitutional debate was not whether to make Sharia Law part of the constitution (Ennahdha had brought this up, but early signaled its willingness to compromise). It was, rather, the struggle for the nature of the Tunisian political system. Ennahdha wanted a parliamentary democracy, Nidaa Tounes and others pushed for a strong presidency. The result, reached in February 2014 mixes both. But this division should be remembered when formulating assumptions about Tunisia‘s future.
The question now is: what will the next government look like? As the largest party, Nidaa Tounes will head coalition talks. The, at first sight, most alluring option for it is a coalition with other, smaller secular parties that share its anti-Islamist stance and its liberal economic programme. But this is attractive at first glance only. Tunisia’s socio-economic pressures are enormous and liberals want to address them by attracting foreign and private investment. Such measures might be popular in the short term, creating jobs and consequently increasing support for the ruling coalition. But the jobs will be low-paid and profits will be harvested by foreign and private investors. In the long term, this spells success not for Nidaa Tounes, but the opposition.
Geographic differences in voters’ behavior suggest as much. On 26 October, all the northern electoral districts, with their relatively well-developed communities and infrastructure, went to Nidaa Tounes. But in the poorer south, Ennahdha remained the most popular political force. And in the middle of the country, support is split. If the next ruling coalition doesn‘t considerably improve the lot in the south and centre of the country, Ennahdha could well emerge victorious in the next elections.
On 23 November, a new president will be elected. Ennahdha has not fielded its own candidate, but who it chooses to throw its support behind among the 27 contenders will be crucial. The party has already signaled its readiness to back Nidaa Tounes’ candidate in return for becoming the junior partner in a ruling coalition.
To improve the fragile state of the country’s democratic institutions, such a partnership might be optimal. The two main parties, and even more their constituencies, hate each other. They would surely be watching each other’s steps very closely, eager to identify failure, fraud or nepotism. Such a coalition could provide solid foundations – even if based on antipathy - for democratic checks and balances. It is either a non-starter or a best starting point to develop sound democratic institutions.
Without such institutions, it is hard to envision Tunisia beginning to enjoy the kind of stable economic life that could benefit everyone let alone fulfil aspirations for social justice and dignity, the very demands of the protests that led to the flight of its dictator and touched off an avalanche of repercussions across the region.
But first Tunisian politics needs to gain the trust of the population. Out of 7.8 million eligible voters, 5.1 million registered for the elections, but only just over 3 million, or 40 percent, cast their votes. It must be the aim of all parties in this five-year parliamentary term, to establish credibility for their work and the parliamentary process itself.
Peter Schäfer is head of the North Africa office of the German Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung in Tunis.
Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the original author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of al-Araby al-Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.
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