George Joffe is a research fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge and visiting Professor of Geography at Kings College, London University, specializing in the Middle East.
Libya’s descent into chaos has been rapid but is explicable. Unfortunately the situation on the ground does not lend itself easily to mediation efforts. Full-blown civil war seems imminent.
Government warns of end to subsidies as oil prices continue to drop, damaging country’s foreign reserves and ability to pay its way out of domestic discontent.
Verbal and militant extremism in Algeria suggest that whatever the success of the anti-IS coalition in the Middle East today, the issue will continue to embitter the region for years to come.
A recent hacking scandal has seen tensions between the two North African rivals spike. And as long as the Western Sahara issue is alive, any collaboration between the two to stabilise the wider region is a long way off.
Bouazizi’s act of self-immolation four years ago was a profound personal statement of despair. It also acted as a catalyst for the accumulated frustrations in the region. But transitions involving liberalisation take time. We are only a short way in.
The Islamic State group's spread into the Maghreb is more about the legitimacy bestowed upon decentralised groups by association with a global brand than the construction of a new global organisation.
Since the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi, a power vacuum has led Libya down a path of factionalism and war. Isolated from both Tobruk and Tripoli's rule, extremists and separatists thrive, leaving the future of Libya hanging in the balance.
With Essebsi presidential frontrunner and his Nidaa Tounes Tunisia's largest party, maintaining the country's democratic aspirations may necessitate a coalition with Ennahdha. This could guarantee not only consensus between Islamists and seculars, but also between the past and present.
The recent presidential election was a holding operation; President Bouteflika was re-elected to provide time for a more durable presidential succession, one that will satisfy the interests and aspirations of the occult groups that make up Algeria's power-elite.
Algeria's recent police strike suggests a state without a first line of defence. And riots have now become so common that the process even has a name: "le gestion démocratique des foules" - the democratic management of crowds.
