A five-year truce in Gaza? That's a double-edged sword

The Palestinian Authority and the Egyptian leadership are deeply concerned about a recent announcement by Ismail Haniyeh, the deputy chief of Hamas' political bureau, of efforts to agree on a five-year truce in Gaza in return for the lifting of the Israeli blockade.

Haniyeh also announced that Hamas did not mind the proposed truce as long as it did not lead to Israel's exclusive control of the West Bank.

He would not have issued his latest statement without a confirmation from European mediators that Israel had at least initially agreed to the idea.

Such a deal would be a severe blow to the PA, as it would allow Israel to focus on the West Bank exclusively by intensifying settlement activity and Judaising Jerusalem, especially under a right-wing government.

Thus, it was not without purpose that Haniyeh put the condition rejecting Israel's exclusive control of the West Bank in his statement; it was rather an attempt to reassure the PA and respond to any accusations that Hamas was harming the Palestinian question.

As for Egypt, it is concerned about the agreement because it may cost it the Palestinian card, as one of the truce agreement's main articles allows Gaza relative independence from Egypt through a seaport.

Such a deal would be a severe blow to the PA, as it would allow Israel to focus on the West Bank exclusively.

It would lessen the importance of the Rafah border crossing, and allow Hamas to cut the last link with Egypt.

Israel would benefit on many levels - such a deal would promote and prolong Palestinian divisions by strengthening Hamas' position and weakening the PA.

But it also poses risks to Israel. The truce would strengthen Hamas and highlight the failure of previous Israeli policies to contain the movement.

Thus, there are two possibilities of what has happened behind the scene - Israel has either agreed to the truce as a "lesser of two evils". The second is that Israel was bluffing to stalling Hamas until the next act of aggression.

Whatever the motivations, the ball is in the court of the PA president, Mahmoud Abbas. He needs to expedite the reconciliation agreement and take full responsibility of the Gaza Strip through a consensus government, leading to the opening of the Rafah border crossing and thus blocking any possible Israeli plans.

This is an edited translation of the original Arabic.