The end of the Iran deal is no big deal, Arab analysts say
The end of the Iran deal is no big deal, Arab analysts say
Trump's decision to revoke the Iran deal has few implications for Arab civilians, analysts from Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon tell The New Arab.
6 min read
US President Donald Trump has pulled the US out of the Iran nuclear deal [Getty]
US President Donald Trump's decision to renege on the Iran nuclear deal is just one of many controversial decisions he has made since coming into office in January 2017.
Even before his election, he pledged to "dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran", which he said he believed was a sign of President Barack Obama selling American sovereignty short for the sake of his legacy.
After Trump revoked Washington's involvement in the deal yesterday, the world was quick to react. Inside the US, Trump faced a great deal of opposition, with many branding it a "mistake". Obama openly grieved the end of what he saw as a diplomatic masterpiece and referred to Trump's move as "so misguided".
At large, much of the attention has been placed on the reactions of the political elite. But the way it will affect citizens of Iran's neighbour countries continues to seem bleak.
Analysts from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon who spoke to The New Arab agree Trump's decision will not have a positive impact on civilians, especially considering Iran was able to damage their countries while sanctions were in place.
Implications for Syrians
"Trump isn't rescinding the deal on behalf of the liberty of Syrians or indeed Iranians," said Syrian analyst Sam Hamad.
Iran has staunchly backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is notorious for violently suppressing a peaceful uprising during the Arab Spring, turning it into a civil war. In 2016, it was estimated that Iran had control over more than 70,000 troops deployed in Syria, with 15,000 Iranian soldiers and the rest being foreign Shia militia fighters.
The Tehran regime consistently supports Assad's crimes on the international stage.
"The argument that Trump's rescinding of the Iran deal will positively affect Syrians seems to forget that it was under sanctions that Iran launched and expanded its intervention in Syria - both the physical intervention and the financial underwriting of the Assad regime," Hamad added.
"Everything Iran has done in Syria had been done within their means - means conditioned by sanctions. I can't see any reason why the main dynamic of Iranian intervention in Syria, namely to prop up the Baathist rump state will be harmed by Trump turning his back on this deal.
"What it might possibly curtail is the extent to which Iran can gain materially and geopolitically from its intervention in Syria. Meaning the end of the nuclear deal might signal that the US and Israel are not going to tolerate its permanent presence in Syria. Though, even then, I don't think that's a given."
Implications for Yemenis
Iran has for long been accused of backing the Houthi rebels in Yemen - and even though Tehran denies engagement in Yemen, evidence of the Houthis possessing and using Iranian weapons has consistently emerged.
Yemeni analyst Baraa Shiban agrees that Trump revoking the US' involvement in the Iran deal will not make any huge change in Yemen's continuing violence.
"This is an overdue step," Shiban said. "The deal should not have been signed in the first place. There is an exaggeration in Europe and especially in left-wing circles that Trump's decision will lead to war - when really the Iran deal itself caused exactly what it was supposed to prevent."
Shiban argues that the Iran deal would have been successful if signed in 2009 or 2010, but by 2015 Tehran's influence in the post-Arab Spring Middle East had significantly developed.
"At this stage, revoking the deal is damage control rather than alleviation because the capability of the Houthi rebels significantly increased after Obama signed the Iran deal in April 2015," Tehran's "blank cheque" to carry out its activities in Yemen has now been cashed in, he added.
Despite the fact that Trump's decision may marginally contain Iran's activities in Yemen, according to Shiban, it is now too late.
Implications for Iraqis
The concern that militants could continue to take action leaks forward onto Iraq. Since the US-sponsored toppling of former dictator Saddam Hussein, Iran's influence in the Baghdad government has significantly increased.
Iraqi analyst Tallha Abdulrazaq believes Iranian policy mirrors Iraq: "Clearly, whatever affects Iran will in turn impact Iraq," he told The New Arab.
"Iran is the ultimate kingmaker in Iraq, and so it will use its leverage with politicians and Shia jihadist militias who are now also running for office to apply pressure to force the US to withdraw its forces from Iraq," he said, emphasising Iranian influence in the Iraqi political machine.
Trump's withdrawal may aggravate Tehran to assert its influence more clearly, and Iraqi civilians remain the ultimate victims.
"Iran will destabilise Iraq further for the sake of retaliating against Washington, and the ultimate losers in all this chaos will be the Iraqi people - whose country will remain a useful hub for Iranian expansionism throughout the region," Abdulrazaq added.
Even before his election, he pledged to "dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran", which he said he believed was a sign of President Barack Obama selling American sovereignty short for the sake of his legacy.
After Trump revoked Washington's involvement in the deal yesterday, the world was quick to react. Inside the US, Trump faced a great deal of opposition, with many branding it a "mistake". Obama openly grieved the end of what he saw as a diplomatic masterpiece and referred to Trump's move as "so misguided".
At large, much of the attention has been placed on the reactions of the political elite. But the way it will affect citizens of Iran's neighbour countries continues to seem bleak.
Analysts from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon who spoke to The New Arab agree Trump's decision will not have a positive impact on civilians, especially considering Iran was able to damage their countries while sanctions were in place.
Implications for Syrians
"Trump isn't rescinding the deal on behalf of the liberty of Syrians or indeed Iranians," said Syrian analyst Sam Hamad.
Iran has staunchly backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is notorious for violently suppressing a peaceful uprising during the Arab Spring, turning it into a civil war. In 2016, it was estimated that Iran had control over more than 70,000 troops deployed in Syria, with 15,000 Iranian soldiers and the rest being foreign Shia militia fighters.
The Tehran regime consistently supports Assad's crimes on the international stage.
"The argument that Trump's rescinding of the Iran deal will positively affect Syrians seems to forget that it was under sanctions that Iran launched and expanded its intervention in Syria - both the physical intervention and the financial underwriting of the Assad regime," Hamad added.
"Everything Iran has done in Syria had been done within their means - means conditioned by sanctions. I can't see any reason why the main dynamic of Iranian intervention in Syria, namely to prop up the Baathist rump state will be harmed by Trump turning his back on this deal.
"What it might possibly curtail is the extent to which Iran can gain materially and geopolitically from its intervention in Syria. Meaning the end of the nuclear deal might signal that the US and Israel are not going to tolerate its permanent presence in Syria. Though, even then, I don't think that's a given."
Implications for Yemenis
 |
The deal should not have been signed in the first place. There is an exaggeration in Europe and especially in left-wing circles that Trump's decision will lead to war |  |
Iran has for long been accused of backing the Houthi rebels in Yemen - and even though Tehran denies engagement in Yemen, evidence of the Houthis possessing and using Iranian weapons has consistently emerged.
Yemeni analyst Baraa Shiban agrees that Trump revoking the US' involvement in the Iran deal will not make any huge change in Yemen's continuing violence.
"This is an overdue step," Shiban said. "The deal should not have been signed in the first place. There is an exaggeration in Europe and especially in left-wing circles that Trump's decision will lead to war - when really the Iran deal itself caused exactly what it was supposed to prevent."
Shiban argues that the Iran deal would have been successful if signed in 2009 or 2010, but by 2015 Tehran's influence in the post-Arab Spring Middle East had significantly developed.
"At this stage, revoking the deal is damage control rather than alleviation because the capability of the Houthi rebels significantly increased after Obama signed the Iran deal in April 2015," Tehran's "blank cheque" to carry out its activities in Yemen has now been cashed in, he added.
Despite the fact that Trump's decision may marginally contain Iran's activities in Yemen, according to Shiban, it is now too late.
Implications for Iraqis
|
Iran is the ultimate kingmaker in Iraq, and so it will use its leverage with politicians and Shia jihadist militias... to apply pressure to force the US to withdraw its forces from Iraq | |
The concern that militants could continue to take action leaks forward onto Iraq. Since the US-sponsored toppling of former dictator Saddam Hussein, Iran's influence in the Baghdad government has significantly increased.
Iraqi analyst Tallha Abdulrazaq believes Iranian policy mirrors Iraq: "Clearly, whatever affects Iran will in turn impact Iraq," he told The New Arab.
"Iran is the ultimate kingmaker in Iraq, and so it will use its leverage with politicians and Shia jihadist militias who are now also running for office to apply pressure to force the US to withdraw its forces from Iraq," he said, emphasising Iranian influence in the Iraqi political machine.
Trump's withdrawal may aggravate Tehran to assert its influence more clearly, and Iraqi civilians remain the ultimate victims.
"Iran will destabilise Iraq further for the sake of retaliating against Washington, and the ultimate losers in all this chaos will be the Iraqi people - whose country will remain a useful hub for Iranian expansionism throughout the region," Abdulrazaq added.
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Implications for Lebanese
One of Iran's biggest Arab proxy groups, Hizballah, was founded and is based in Lebanon. The group has for years been accused of assassinating former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri and is frequently condemned for supporting the brutal Assad regime in neighbouring Syria.
The New Arab's Karim Traboulsi, based in Beirut, says Hizballah's reach in the country will be one of the only major repercussions for Lebanon of Trump's move.
"In the short term, there is no direct effect, except that it could embolden Hizballah's opponents to ask for more political concessions from the group as Lebanon enters negotiations to form a new post-election government," he said. "But even then Hizballah has emerged very strong from the vote and the Syrian war."
He added that Lebanese citizens may be affected by the way Lebanon is viewed because of Hizballah's activities and the group's closeness with Iran.
"There is already a raft of sanctions and planned sanctions on Hizballah in the US. These are not directly linked to the nuclear deal, but Trump himself has cited Iran's ballistic missile programme and support for foreign terrorists as one of the reasons he is taking the US out from the deal, and if we see expanded sanctions on these issues, Lebanese citizens will undoubtedly be affected given the links between Hizballah and Iran."
While revoking the US hand in the Iran deal will most certainly go down in history as a bold move by Trump, civilians in countries remain at large unaffected by the deal - at least in any way positive.
For Iraqis, Yemenis, Syrians and Lebanese, the damage Iran has caused has already been done - and while Trump's decision poses a strategic disadvantage for Tehran, the fact that Trump has little regard for the Arab civilians he claims to want to defend, married with the fact they perceive his actions as such means they are even less optimistic about the future of their countries.
Follow Diana Alghoul on Twitter: @SuperKnafeh
