UNSC members scramble for deal after Syria cross-border aid resolution lapses

Members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) continued discussions on Monday to extend the UN mandate to deliver aid from Turkey to Syria, which had expired the day before on 10 July.

Over the weekend, both Russia and the "western" members of the security councils traded vetoes as they tried and failed to advance competing visions over the UN aid mission into Syria.

Russia insists on a six-month renewal of the UN cross-border operation, which aid actors said would significantly complicate the logistics of humanitarian aid delivery.

On the other hand, France, United States and Britain (known as the P3) presented a resolution which would have renewed cross-border aid for nine months, but this was vetoed by Russia. This text was a reduction from the original demand from western powers to extend the aid delivery by another full year.

In 2020, the aid resolution also lapsed but was renewed one day later.

Aid actors have warned of a "humanitarian catastrophe" if the UN aid mission is not extended, describing it as "a vital lifeline" for the million people in the area.

Raed Saleh, the founder of the emergency medical group The White Helmets, said on Monday that subjecting humanitarian aid to "Russian blackmail cannot be accepted."

The uncertainty over the aid operation's future comes at an inconvenient period in northwest Syria, as food prices are at an all-time high and humanitarian conditions are deteriorating.

"It won't be an immediate collapse. Aid groups have been stockpiling stuff in Syria, so they will have what they need for two or three months," Aron Lund, a fellow with The Century Foundation, told The New Arab.

"It will be a slow loss of capacity. Then you have the big unknown. At this point, we will start seeing the contours of alternative plans. To what extent that will work, it's unknown," Lund added.

Donor governments have been quietly drafting a backup plan to keep aid flowing to northwest Syria in the case of a Russian veto, though some details remain undecided.

Other reports have pointed to a coalition of international NGOs that would continue the aid mission, either with reduced assistance or none at all from the UN.

Still, according to Lund, the "ideal situation" would be a renewal of the UN cross-border operation.

"The timeframe is the biggest sticking point," Sam Heller, also a fellow at The Century Foundation, told The New Arab.

Heller pointed out that the draft of the cross-border renewal put forth by the P3 did incorporate demands from Russia. These demands include expanding early recovery assistance, which Damascus wants, and expanding reporting on the progress of early recovery efforts.

The main difference between the two proposals is the amount of time the cross-border mission is renewed for.

Russia's current proposal is to extend the cross-border mission for six months, then have another vote in January to decide whether to re-extend the resolution.

The P3's draft proposes a six-month extension, with an automatic renewal unless the UNSC votes otherwise at the time – which would require a unanimous vote against renewal.

"It's also possible that things have reached an impasse in a way that prevents renewal altogether. Russia put forward a proposal to renew the cross-border mandate, but … a no-deal scenario is acceptable to them," Heller said.